Saturday, October 24, 2009

Preview: Steelers vs. Vikings

Let me begin by saying that I believe that between these two, the Vikings are the better team overall at this point. The Vikings are 6-0, the Steelers are 4-2. Both teams have pretty much played the same caliber of opponents. The Vikings are definitely the biggest challenge for the Steelers thus far.

The best teams the Vikings have played are the 3-2 Greenbay Packers and the 3-3 Baltimore Ravens. None of the teams we've beaten have a winning record. Beating the Vikings would serve as a great statement, especially going into a Bye Week.

I'd say that on paper the Steelers and Vikings match up very well, and I think both teams will score at least 20 points. The Vikings are averaging 31.5 points per game and the Steelers are finally finding their offensive identity on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger and in the hands of his wide receivers.

The key for the Steelers to win the game is to establish a lead early (at least 14-3 by halftime), and continue working the clock and ripping down yardage. Bruce Arians cannot get too greedy too early if we establish that kind of lead. I want him to be aggressive in the play calling, but not force a 50+ yard heave three or four times that result in consecutive sacks. Dump the ball off to Heath Miller and throw quick slants to Santonio Holmes. Throw in a couple of draw plays and don't be afraid to run the ball.

The key is make the Vikings' defensive front question their own aggressiveness. Fright Night, Holmes and Ward will be excellent candidates for various screens to help keep the pressure off.

If we get a lead and then try to throw bombs (and fail), it will revive the Vikings' chances to continue the running game with Adrian Peterson. If, instead, we build an early lead and work our way down the field methodically (and aggressively), it will be harder for the Vikings to resort to the run in the second half.

The challenging part for the Steelers is that Bret Favre is perfectly capable of beating us all on his own, given the success other QBs have had against our secondary. The key in that department is Troy Polamalu. If he plays and he's healthy, it gives us hope. If he's out, look for at least a half-dozen completed passes down the middle of the field in the 10-40 yard range. I saw some breakdown on the NFL network showing that Favre loves throwing it down the middle, which is where we've been the most vulnerable in our zone schemes.

Speaking of passing, the Steelers are ranked 12th in passing defense but the Vikings are ranked a lowly 24th. Also, they've allowed 24 pass plays that have gone for 20 yards or more, two of which were for 40 yards or more. The Steelers have allowed 13 and 2 in that department. Given the fact that the Steelers' offense is ranked second in the NFL in passing, the edge there goes to Ben Roethlisberger and company.

My prediction: 31-28 Steelers

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